U.S. Tariffs & Canadian Cities: How Halifax’s Real Estate Market Stands Strong​

As we navigate the evolving landscape of international trade, it's important to assess how recent U.S. tariff announcements may impact our local economy and the real estate market. The Canadian Chamber's Business Data Lab (BDL) has provided valuable insights into which Canadian cities are most vulnerable to these tariffs, offering a clearer picture of potential challenges and opportunities: ​businessdatalab.ca

Understanding the Tariff Exposure Index

The BDL developed a U.S. Tariff Exposure Index to evaluate the susceptibility of various Canadian cities to the newly imposed U.S. tariffs. This index considers two primary factors:​

1. Export Intensity: The proportion of a city's economy reliant on exports to the U.S.​

2. Export Dependence: The percentage of a city's total exports that are destined for the U.S. market.​

Cities that rank higher in both categories are deemed more vulnerable to the adverse effects of these tariffs.​

Cities at Greatest Risk

The BDL's findings highlight several cities that stand out due to their heightened exposure:​

• Saint John, New Brunswick: Topping the list, Saint John's economy is significantly intertwined with U.S. trade, primarily due to its substantial energy exports.​

• Calgary, Alberta: As a major hub for energy exports, Calgary's economic health is closely linked to its trading relationship with the U.S.​

• Southwestern Ontario Cities: Cities like Windsor, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Brantford, and Guelph are heavily involved in automotive and manufacturing sectors, making them particularly susceptible to U.S. trade policies.​

Halifax's Position in the Tariff Landscape

Turning our attention to Halifax, it's encouraging to note that our city is not among the top-tier cities most exposed to these U.S. tariffs. Several factors contribute to this resilience:​

• Diverse Economic Base: Halifax boasts a well-rounded economy, with sectors ranging from education and healthcare to technology and tourism. This diversification acts as a buffer against sector-specific external shocks.​

• Strategic Geographic Location: Our proximity to European markets provides alternative trading avenues, reducing over-reliance on U.S. trade. This geographical advantage allows Halifax to pivot and adapt to changing trade dynamics more effectively.​

• Balanced Export Portfolio: While the U.S. remains a valuable trading partner, Halifax's export strategy includes significant engagements with other international markets, mitigating the impact of U.S.-centric trade disruptions.​

Looking Ahead

While Halifax appears to be relatively insulated from the immediate effects of U.S. tariffs, some impact is still likely. However, our city's strengths—particularly our diverse economy and strategic location—position us well to weather these challenges. By leveraging these advantages, we can not only mitigate short-term disruptions but also take advantage of opportunities for long-term diversification and growth. 

Impact to the Local Housing Market

The reality in Halifax is that housing supply remains tight compared to demand. At the end of February, the average home price reached $624,979—surpassed only once in the province’s history, in June 2024. Seasonal trends in our market show a 5% fluctuation, with homes selling for less in the fall and winter months compared to the spring. We are still in Winter and we already have Spring pricing. 

With interest rates continuing to decline and new government initiatives—such as 30-year mortgages and the $1.5 million cap on insured mortgages—aiming to improve affordability, it’s highly likely that we will surpass the $625,000 mark in the coming months.

Currently, Halifax has just 1.8 months of housing supply, meaning that if no new listings were added, it would take less than two months for all available homes to sell. A seller’s market is typically defined as anything under three months of supply, and in these conditions, prices continue to rise. Even with a significant increase in inventory, it would take a dramatic shift to move us beyond a balanced market and into buyer’s market territory. Unlikely. 

With our economy remaining relatively insulated and housing supply still constrained, I expect home prices to continue rising in 2025.

For more information or to create a real estate plan tailored to your specific needs, contact Chris Perkins at 902 210 1223 or via chrisperkins@cbmaritime.ca. 

For a comprehensive understanding and detailed data, you can access the full BDL report here: Which Canadian Cities Are Most Exposed to Trump’s Tariffs? - Business Data Lab